In light of the Cohen plea deal and the Manafort conviction, President Trump is in a precarious spot. Or is he? Better yet, is Trump closer to being impeached or are we just grasping at straws?
Michael Cohen, Trump’s former personal attorney, and Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign chairman, have made headlines across the nation lately. On August 21, Cohen pleaded guilty on eight felony charges, including tax fraud and bank fraud, and was charged on violating election laws by engineering hush money payments to two women who claimed to have had affairs with Trump years back.
Almost at the same moment, Manafort was convicted on eight counts and faces a maximum of 80 years in prison for five charges of tax fraud, one charge of hiding foreign bank accounts and two counts of bank fraud.
This is a big deal. But what will it mean? To start, this Cohen-Manafort investigation is being run on two tracks: a political and legal track. The latter is wrapping up. The political one, however, just keeps ramping up. Perhaps the president’s impeachment depends on the Cohen plea deal and the Manafort investigation, along with special counsel, Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation report, which is expected to release later on this year.
Right now, only Congress can decide which steps to take. But together, the Cohen plea deal, Manafort’s conviction and Mueller’s investigation could point to the president’s political demise.
Trump as a sitting president cannot be indicted, even though there is continuous debate about that. In order to bump Trump from office, the only path to take is impeachment. In the future, near or far, Congress could initiate impeachment procedures, that is if Democrats outnumber Republicans this year (which is very likely).
A generic ballot from FiveThirtyEight, a website that focuses on political opinion analysis, politics and economics, shows that as of September 2, 2018, 48.8 percent of registered voters would support Democrats in a congressional election. For Republicans, 39.4 percent would support.
In May of this year, The Economist revealed its 2018 election model. It gave Democrats a 65 percent chance of retaking House majority, pegging the party at 222 seats. It seems that the Democrats’ uphill House climb isn’t as steep as everyone thought.Though these cases are closely related to Trump, there are still no charges against him…yet.
As this investigation continues to unfold, the truth is just waiting to hit newspaper headlines for the public in big, black, and bold letters, reading, “Supreme Court finds Trump guilty of collusion.” It’s an administration mired in political scandal after political scandal, so there is no doubt that a negative conclusion is on the horizon.
The suspicious and unscrupulous behavior in the White House should not be tolerated. As a constituent of this nation, I would like to be represented by an administration who focuses on the well-being of the people. A well-rounded president who respects all. After Trump, I hope for a competent and sophisticated successor.
The future is hopeful for an impeachment. But with so many moving parts in this exhausting investigation, all we can do is wait and see.
